Transmission simulator

An educational mathematical model (SEIR humans × SEI Aedes aegypti) with temperature-dependent mosquito traits from Mordecai et al. (2017).

Key facts

• Transmission peaks at around 29 to 30 °C: mosquitoes bite more and the virus incubates faster, but above about 34 °C mosquito survival collapses.
• R0 depends on the square of the biting rate and linearly on mosquito density, so preventing bites and removing breeding sites reinforce each other.
• Pushing R0 below 1 stops an outbreak; the 3M Plus programme is a lever every household controls directly.
• Educational only: one serotype, a closed population without prior immunity, constant weather.

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.