SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in Australia

Country profile for Australia (Western Pacific): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • Australia reported 805 dengue cases from January to September 2026, -47.9% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to September: 0 (0 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, Australia recorded 1,920 cases, an incidence of 7.0 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.000%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for September 2026: Normal, because cases are within the usual range for this time of year.
  • Ensemble forecast: October 2026 about 44 cases (80% range 30 to 63); November 2026 about 46 cases (80% range 29 to 73); December 2026 about 49 cases (80% range 30 to 78). Backtest MAPE 23.1%, MASE 0.35.
  • Cases usually peak in January (based on 21 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 22 months; the most recent was January 2025 with 283 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Australia since 1979.
  • The monthly series is extended back to January 2005 with OpenDengue data, after checking that both sources agree (median ratio 1).
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Indonesia, Colombia, Sri Lanka, Barbados, Saint Martin.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.