SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in Sri Lanka

Country profile for Sri Lanka (South-East Asia): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • Sri Lanka reported 95,545 dengue cases from January to August 2026, +160.8% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to August: 47 (19 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, Sri Lanka recorded 51,463 cases, an incidence of 236.5 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.056%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for August 2026: Outbreak signal, because the latest month is above the 3rd quartile of the previous five years; the outbreak score is 0.86, well above what is expected for the season; there is a 72% probability of crossing the epidemic threshold within three months; the last three months are +204.1% above the three months before.
  • Ensemble forecast: September 2026 about 5,673 cases (80% range 3,919 to 8,214); October 2026 about 4,761 cases (80% range 2,730 to 8,303); November 2026 about 5,797 cases (80% range 2,941 to 11,427). Backtest MAPE 21.5%, MASE 0.49.
  • Cases usually peak in January (based on 16 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 18 months; the most recent was July 2026 with 29,973 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Sri Lanka since 1965.
  • The monthly series is extended back to January 2010 with OpenDengue data, after checking that both sources agree (median ratio 1).
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Colombia, Venezuela, Singapore, Honduras, Australia.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.