SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in Maldives

Country profile for Maldives (South-East Asia): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • Maldives reported 4,674 dengue cases from January to August 2026, +330.0% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to August: 5 (0 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, Maldives recorded 2,511 cases, an incidence of 474.1 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.000%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for August 2026: Outbreak signal, because the latest month is above the 3rd quartile of the previous five years; the outbreak score is 0.66, well above what is expected for the season; there is a 55% probability of crossing the epidemic threshold within three months.
  • Ensemble forecast: September 2026 about 347 cases (80% range 214 to 561); October 2026 about 299 cases (80% range 144 to 620); November 2026 about 256 cases (80% range 95 to 689). Backtest MAPE 29.9%, MASE 0.34.
  • Cases usually peak in June (based on 4 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 5 months; the most recent was March 2026 with 596 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Maldives since 1985.
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Thailand.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.