SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in People's Republic of China

Country profile for People's Republic of China (Western Pacific): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • People's Republic of China reported 2,849 dengue cases from January to August 2026, -3.7% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to August: 0 (0 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, People's Republic of China recorded 10,007 cases, an incidence of 0.7 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.000%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for August 2026: Normal, because cases are within the usual range for this time of year.
  • Ensemble forecast: September 2026 about 2,142 cases (80% range 1,201 to 3,819); October 2026 about 3,504 cases (80% range 1,711 to 7,173); November 2026 about 775 cases (80% range 319 to 1,879). Backtest MAPE 38.9%, MASE 0.55.
  • Cases usually peak in October (based on 6 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 1 months; the most recent was February 2026 with 94 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for People's Republic of China since 1979.
  • The monthly series is extended back to January 2019 with OpenDengue data, after checking that both sources agree (median ratio 1).
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Sudan, Nepal, Pakistan, Mexico, Bangladesh.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.