SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in Brazil

Country profile for Brazil (Americas): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • Brazil reported 1,312,636 dengue cases from January to September 2026, -62.2% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to September: 343 (1,784 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, Brazil recorded 3,842,465 cases, an incidence of 1805.6 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.048%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for September 2026: Normal, because cases are within the usual range for this time of year.
  • Ensemble forecast: October 2026 about 52,491 cases (80% range 35,554 to 77,497); November 2026 about 62,461 cases (80% range 36,691 to 106,329); December 2026 about 72,136 cases (80% range 37,791 to 137,694). Backtest MAPE 26.8%, MASE 0.15.
  • Cases usually peak in April (based on 12 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 14 months; the most recent was October 2024 with 127,442 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Brazil since 1980.
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, Ecuador, Uruguay.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.