SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in Peru

Country profile for Peru (Americas): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • Peru reported 59,553 dengue cases from January to September 2026, +78.9% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to September: 70 (52 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, Peru recorded 39,211 cases, an incidence of 113.4 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.143%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for September 2026: Outbreak signal, because the latest month is above the 3rd quartile of the previous five years; the outbreak score is 0.56, well above what is expected for the season; CUSUM detects a sustained rise since July 2026; there is a 45% probability of crossing the epidemic threshold within three months; the last three months are +42.2% above the three months before.
  • Ensemble forecast: October 2026 about 6,088 cases (80% range 3,365 to 11,013); November 2026 about 4,399 cases (80% range 1,664 to 11,630); December 2026 about 4,320 cases (80% range 1,356 to 13,761). Backtest MAPE 33%, MASE 0.14.
  • Cases usually peak in May (based on 15 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 20 months; the most recent was April 2024 with 81,316 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Peru since 1980.
  • The monthly series is extended back to January 2011 with OpenDengue data, after checking that both sources agree (median ratio 1).
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Indonesia, Ecuador, Brazil, Bolivia, Australia.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.