Dengue in Ecuador
Country profile for Ecuador (Americas): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.
Key facts
- Ecuador reported 37,134 dengue cases from January to September 2026, +7.4% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
- Deaths reported in 2026 to September: 40 (61 in the same period of 2025).
- In 2025, the last full year, Ecuador recorded 37,840 cases, an incidence of 206.9 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.172%.
- SENTINARA early-warning level for September 2026: Outbreak signal, because the latest month is above the epidemic threshold of the endemic channel; the outbreak score is 1.31 (above 1 means cases exceed the 99.5% upper bound for the season); CUSUM detects a sustained rise since July 2026; there is a 58% probability of crossing the epidemic threshold within three months.
- Ensemble forecast: October 2026 about 4,216 cases (80% range 2,933 to 6,059); November 2026 about 3,763 cases (80% range 2,242 to 6,315); December 2026 about 4,064 cases (80% range 2,166 to 7,623). Backtest MAPE 22.2%, MASE 0.45.
- Cases usually peak in May (based on 12 complete years).
- The anomaly detectors flagged 15 months; the most recent was September 2026 with 5,822 cases.
- OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Ecuador since 1980.
- Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Saudi Arabia, Peru, Singapore, Indonesia, Brazil.
Related pages
- Dengue in Saudi Arabia
- Dengue in Peru
- Dengue in Singapore
- Dengue in Indonesia
- Dengue in Brazil
- Dengue in El Salvador
- Dengue in Grenada
- Dengue in Trinidad and Tobago
- Dengue in Costa Rica
- Dengue in United States
Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.