Early dengue signals, read against history

Each month is compared with the same month in the previous five years (Bortman endemic channel), cases are forecast six months ahead, and countries, provinces and sub-districts that break from their own pattern are flagged.

Key facts

• National status for August 2026: 4,167 cases, Success zone (below the historical median). Median 11,745, 3rd quartile 12,348, epidemic threshold 28,363.
• Forecast: September 2026 4,020 cases (80% range 3,298 to 4,900); October 2026 4,209 cases (80% range 3,179 to 5,572); November 2026 4,879 cases (80% range 3,551 to 6,703).
• Countries rising fastest in 2026: Iran (+1879.5%), Timor-Leste (+453.7%), Samoa (+418.1%), Maldives (+330.0%), Sri Lanka (+160.8%).
• Highest provincial incidence in 2023: Kalimantan Tengah (184.1 per 100,000), Kalimantan Barat (182.4 per 100,000), Bali (150.3 per 100,000).
• Semarang City 2024: 19 sub-districts at very high risk, led by Banyumanik, Pekunden, Sambirejo.
• Alert engine (Oct 2026): 5 countries with an outbreak signal, 0 on alert, 8 on watch and 44 normal, out of 57 with enough monthly data. Median forecast MASE 0.31; 80% ranges covered 81% of actual months in the backtest.

Related pages

• Ecuador: Outbreak signal
• Cambodia: Outbreak signal
• Sri Lanka: Outbreak signal
• Peru: Outbreak signal
• Maldives: Outbreak signal
• Bangladesh: Watch
• El Salvador: Watch
• Grenada: Watch
• Trinidad and Tobago: Watch
• Costa Rica: Watch
• Afghanistan: Watch
• United States: Watch
• Jamaica: Watch

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.