SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in El Salvador

Country profile for El Salvador (Americas): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • El Salvador reported 4,786 dengue cases from January to September 2026, +1.4% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to September: 3 (3 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, El Salvador recorded 5,833 cases, an incidence of 91.6 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.051%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for September 2026: Watch, because the latest month is above the 3rd quartile of the previous five years; the last three months are +154.5% above the three months before.
  • Ensemble forecast: October 2026 about 673 cases (80% range 441 to 1,027); November 2026 about 410 cases (80% range 254 to 661); December 2026 about 292 cases (80% range 177 to 479). Backtest MAPE 28.4%, MASE 0.66.
  • Cases usually peak in August (based on 12 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 6 months; the most recent was May 2022 with 2,072 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for El Salvador since 1978.
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Costa Rica, Thailand.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.