SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in Paraguay

Country profile for Paraguay (Americas): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • Paraguay reported 10,325 dengue cases from January to September 2026, -58.1% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to September: 0 (1 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, Paraguay recorded 31,656 cases, an incidence of 451.4 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.003%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for September 2026: Normal, because cases are within the usual range for this time of year.
  • Ensemble forecast: October 2026 about 880 cases (80% range 519 to 1,492); November 2026 about 1,196 cases (80% range 621 to 2,305); December 2026 about 1,534 cases (80% range 720 to 3,268). Backtest MAPE 36.4%, MASE 0.06.
  • Cases usually peak in December (based on 12 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 9 months; the most recent was June 2024 with 5,637 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Paraguay since 1980.
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Timor-Leste, Bolivia, Suriname, Indonesia, Australia.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.