SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in Thailand

Country profile for Thailand (South-East Asia): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • Thailand reported 23,780 dengue cases from January to August 2026, -45.9% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to August: 32 (40 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, Thailand recorded 57,440 cases, an incidence of 80.2 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.082%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for August 2026: Normal, because cases are within the usual range for this time of year.
  • Ensemble forecast: September 2026 about 4,322 cases (80% range 3,277 to 5,700); October 2026 about 3,273 cases (80% range 2,293 to 4,673); November 2026 about 2,744 cases (80% range 1,847 to 4,077). Backtest MAPE 16.6%, MASE 0.18.
  • Cases usually peak in July (based on 17 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 19 months; the most recent was January 2024 with 11,413 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Thailand since 1958.
  • The monthly series is extended back to January 2009 with OpenDengue data, after checking that both sources agree (median ratio 1).
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Cambodia, Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.