SENTINARA

Global

Dengue in Timor-Leste

Country profile for Timor-Leste (South-East Asia): official dengue surveillance data reported to WHO, analysed by the SENTINARA early-warning engine.

Key facts

  • Timor-Leste reported 4,579 dengue cases from January to June 2026, +453.7% compared with the same period of 2025, according to WHO Global Dengue Surveillance.
  • Deaths reported in 2026 to June: 28 (7 in the same period of 2025).
  • In 2025, the last full year, Timor-Leste recorded 1,510 cases, an incidence of 106.4 per 100,000 people and a case fatality rate of 0.530%.
  • SENTINARA early-warning level for June 2026: Normal, because cases are within the usual range for this time of year.
  • Ensemble forecast: July 2026 about 84 cases (80% range 42 to 168); August 2026 about 62 cases (80% range 22 to 172); September 2026 about 49 cases (80% range 16 to 141). Backtest MAPE 54.1%, MASE 0.48.
  • Cases usually peak in February (based on 5 complete years).
  • The anomaly detectors flagged 1 months; the most recent was February 2026 with 2,105 cases.
  • OpenDengue holds complete annual totals for Timor-Leste since 1985.
  • Countries with a similar seasonal pattern: Bolivia, Paraguay, Indonesia, Peru, Australia.

Related pages

Data updated 2026-10-31. Sources: WHO Global Dengue Surveillance; OpenDengue V1.3 (Clarke et al., 2025), doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.24259573; Dinas Kesehatan Kota Semarang; World Bank Open Data; NASA POWER.